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Be proactive but keep lucky rabbit's foot handy

So my friend walks into a restaurant recently to have a late lunch with her daughter. It's a glorious summer day but there are just a few tables newly occupied on the patio and most of the tables inside are empty.

So my friend walks into a restaurant recently to have a late lunch with her daughter.

It's a glorious summer day but there are just a few tables newly occupied on the patio and most of the tables inside are empty.

"It will be a 15 minute wait for the patio," she is told by the hostess.

Somewhat confused by the fact that there will be a wait at all considering the low number of tables she nevertheless says no problem that the two of them, up for a few days from Vancouver, will eat inside.

"There's a wait for inside as well," she is told somewhat sheepishly.

At this point my friend tells me she has to laugh.

"But you are nearly empty," she says.

"We only have one server right now," the hostess replied apologetically.

Symptom or consequence?

It is interesting to note that there are a significant number of ads right now in Pique for servers in the resort.

Are businesses running lean as Whistler copes with a wet beginning to the summer? Are the young workers we rely on for these types of jobs forsaking the town and heading home, or to Vancouver looking for more stability in their jobs? And what does this pattern say about the ramp-up we know is around the corner for this year's winter season?

It is no surprise that everyone is coping with uncertainty right now in business. That's nothing new.

But the uncertainties we are dealing with are tangled in a web so complicated it is hard to see a way forward that does not strain the complex.

This goes far beyond the impossibility of predicting visitor numbers to Whistler. After all, with late-booking trends, the travellers' insatiable search for good deals and the vagrancies of the weather one may as well rely on a crystal ball for that.

I know the resort partners are diligent at surveying and statistics can be useful and revealing, but there is no getting away from the fickle nature of today's traveller.

Now added to this is the "new" uncertainty we face thanks to the down-grading of the U.S.'s credit rating from AAA to AA+ by rating agency Standard & Poor's. Though not unexpected, the recent announcement caused serious tremors through the TSX, which suffered its worst fall in nearly a year before starting to re-bound.

"Uncertainty is never good for markets or for the economy," said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, in a research note. "This, in combination with what will inevitably be meaningful fiscal contraction over the next year and beyond, reduces the growth trajectory for the U.S. economy."

And that, of course, is bad for us.

The credit rating is like a vote of confidence in a country. It is not like the U.S. can't pay its bills but it can be argued that this downgrading of the rating says something about the state of the nation. Some pundits are arguing that it is really recognition of the paralyzing in-fighting that has been clear in U.S. politics for some time.

It's hard to argue against that when you look at how all stripes of politicians dealt with cutting the nation's deficit and raising the borrowing limit to avert a default over the last few weeks.

However, many are critical of the whole ratings system, asking why ratings agencies should have this power over a country's financial reputation. Added to that, of course, is the criticism companies like S&P have come under for failing to see the credit crisis at all, and continuing to give AAA ratings on securities that were destined to fail.

Two other ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, have left their ratings of the U.S. unchanged at AAA.

I happened to be travelling in the U.S. when this debate was dominating the media and what struck me was the near total disinterest by the average person in this.

Actually disinterest is the wrong word - it was closer to subliminal arrogance or maybe quiet confidence in his or her own country.

It was this belief that nothing could touch America, really. Not a debt crisis, not unemployment rates, not what could be seen as a deepening economic slump.

And when I elicited comment about the fact that China, America's largest creditor, was telling the super-power to get its financials in order, my comments were met with disdain, disbelief even.

But let there be no doubt that people in the U.S. are being deeply affected on a daily basis.

"My kids have no jobs and even my parents may have to move in with us," said one traveller I spoke with.

Turns out her parents' new condo purchased several years ago is now worth less than the mortgage and they were counting on the sale of this to finance their retirement.

"My dad was getting ready to retire, but now there is no way he can," she continued.

"This is our first family vacation in two years."

Asked if they had thought of coming to B.C. she responded: "We couldn't afford it. Canada is too expensive."

Talk about the tables being turned.

We all know that life is full of uncertainties and that in many cases life is not "fair."

But as we look to the fall and winter season ahead of us let's be proactive... and it might not hurt to rub that lucky rabbit's foot and pray to Ullr.