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CAA simplifies avalanche prediction with ‘Avaluator’

New website, materials aim to improve backcountry safety

By Andrew Mitchell

Winter has just started in Canada’s western provinces and there has already been one avalanche fatality.

On Tuesday, Nov. 7 an ice climber in Alberta’s Kananaskis Country was killed when a slab avalanche detached above an ice face. The climber, who was leading the route up a narrow gully, was spared as the avalanche debris swept over his head, but his partner on belay was buried under a mound of snow.

The leader climbed down to his partner and dug for 45 minutes with his helmet before going for help. Later that afternoon the Kanaskis Country Rangers discovered the man’s body under more than three metres of snow.

Neither climber carried an avalanche receiver or rescue tools, and the avalanche — believed to be a minor class two — was likely due to natural causes.

It will never be known whether the Canadian Avalanche Association’s new Avaluator program could have prevented the death, but at the very least it could have ensured that the climbers were better prepared.

The Avaluator program was created by the Canadian Avalanche Association to simplify trip planning and decision making for people heading into avalanche terrain.

“There are hundreds of factors you have to take into consideration, if you’ve ever taken a course on avalanches,” said John Kelly, operations director for the Canadian Avalanche Centre, “but what people were lacking was a simple way to sort things out into the most pertinent details when planning a trip.

“We looked at the entire history of avalanche accidents (in North America), more than 1,400 accidents, when making the Avaluator tool, and we found the same common, simple features were common in every accident. By identifying the simple things, we’ve given people a good tool they can use to help make safer choices in the backcountry.”

The idea for the Avaluator stems from the 2002-03 winter, where a record 29 people died in avalanches in Canada, predominantly in B.C. Two accidents claimed seven people each, including an avalanche that killed snowboard legend Craig Kelly, and one that claimed seven teenagers from an Alberta private school. Prior to that winter funding was being cut for avalanche monitoring and education at both the provincial and federal level.

In the aftermath, it was recognized that the Canadian Avalanche Centre needed to expand its operations, while updating hazard assessment protocols to make them more accessible to backcountry users. The Avaluator was developed over the next three years with the leading avalanche experts from across Canada and the U.S. contributing to the project, with sponsorship from the National Search and Rescue Secretariat and Parks Canada.

John Kelly says the program is targeted mainly at beginners, but adds it will also be useful to more experienced backcountry users who have taken avalanche courses in the past. He stresses that the Avaluator is not meant to replace any aspect of avalanche safety but to complement the knowledge and certifications that already exists.

“It’s a tool, one of many tools people should bring into the backcountry. It can help a beginner to sort out what’s important from all the details, and it’s useful for someone more experienced as a reference,” adding that the information included on the Avaluator card is really a summary of best practices in given situations.

“It’s not meant to replace training, education or experience.”

An Avaluator kit is comprised of a simple card and booklet of decision-making tips that focuses on the four key components to avalanche safety: Trip Planning, Identifying Avalanche Terrain, Slope Evaluation and Good Travel Habits. There is also an online Avaluator Trip Planning Tool with a seven-step process to help people determine what the risks might be.

According to Kelly, the kit first asks you where you’re going — the avalanche rating for a given slope or area, as well as the current avalanche hazard rating.

“This should give you an indication as to whether that trip is recommended to that area,” he said. “If it’s a good day it will tell you to take the normal amount of caution, or it might tell you that you should think hard before going in somewhere and that you might need to take extra caution. The third level is in the red zone, that this trip is not recommended for today.”

The card also includes a checklist of things to look for, based on what’s been seen with prior avalanche accidents. Examples include signs of loading from wind or snow, whether it’s currently snowing, the aspect and steepness of the slope, and evidence of past avalanches. The more boxes that are checked off, the higher the danger rating.

Kelly hopes that some people will go through the Avaluator process and decide to call off potentially dangerous trips, or change their itinerary to lower the risk.

“Maybe in the course of your trip you can choose one option over another,” he said.

Kelly himself was on the expert panel that put together the Avaluator. Others on the panel include Bruce Jamieson from the University of Calgary Avalanche Research department, avalanche risk management specialist Pascal Haegeli, leading American avalanche expert Ian McCammon, and several others. Although Canada is the only country that rates terrain for avalanche risk, Kelly says the Avaluator can be useful in the U.S. as well. Whether or not the program would be of any interest in Europe, which has a long history of avalanche education, is yet to be seen.

In addition to the kits, the Avaluator program will involve ski resorts and parks where people most frequently enter the backcountry and avalanche terrain. The Canadian Avalanche Association will post a checklist of things for backcountry users to consider at the most commonly used gateways.

“We’re looking into signs wherever people access the backcountry, like the boundary of Whistler Mountain,” said Kelly. “When people go out it will serve as a reminder of the kinds of things people should be looking at on a given day. This really targets an important segment of backcountry users, most out-of-bounders tend to be young, they tend to be at the beginning in terms of their avalanche knowledge, and they fit into the risk profile where they make riskier decision making.

“It’s only a heads up, we’re not trying to stop people from using the backcountry. It’s just a tool so they can make better decisions when they do go.”

Statistically, Kelly can’t say whether any of the CAA’s efforts since 2002-03 have had any effect on the number of avalanche accidents and fatalities.

“It’s too hard to say, and it’s too early to talk about trends,” he said. “We know accidents have been down three years in a row, but we also know that this doesn’t necessarily indicate anything. A single accident can involved several people and skew statistics. We have to look at a period of at least 10 years before we can say with any certainty if any of the things we’re doing are having an effect. We certainly hope that numbers remain low and are falling.”

Making it harder to gauge the effectiveness of programs is the fact that the CAA still has no idea how many people are actually heading into the backcountry. With the growing popularity of snowmobiles, for example, it’s likely that the number of people heading into the backcountry is increasing rapidly. As a result, it’s possible that CAA programs are having a positive effect even if the number of accidents and fatalities remains flat or increases slightly.

The Avaluator kit is available online at www.avalanche.ca , at Mountain Equipment Co-op, and at outdoor stores throughout the province. Escape Route will carry the Avaluator in Whistler.

It will also be available to people who take part in a CAA-hosted backcountry avalanche workshop that will be held in Whistler for the first time on Nov. 25.

“It’s basically a season-opening tune-up for people what want to improve their avalanche skills in the backcountry,” said Kelly.