Whistler limped through a late start to the ski season in November and early December, but when the snow finally arrived the people were not far behind. Heading into February, which is traditionally one of the busiest months for the resort, local hotels are near or at capacity, restaurants have line-ups, and the village is bustling with crowds from early in the morning until late at night.
All of that activity could come screeching to a halt if the U.S. decides to go to war against Iraq, whether it’s with the approval of the United Nations or as the leader of a coalition "of the willing." Along with truth, the tourism industry is traditionally among the first casualties of a war.
Although some media experts see the massive presence of the U.S. military in the Persian Gulf as necessary to convince Iraq to surrender all remnants of its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs, time appears to be running out for diplomacy in the region.
As recently as last week, President George W. Bush stated that Iraq has "weeks, not months" to voluntarily disarm and is already in "material breach" of a UN resolution as far as they are concerned. Great Britain, America’s closest ally on the issue, is willing to sponsor a second UN resolution that would specifically authorize war in Iraq if it does not disarm immediately or fails to account for any missing weapons.
If any members of the UN Security Council should veto this war declaration the U.S. has made it clear that they believe Iraq as a threat to U.S. interests and allies, and is willing go to war without the support of the UN – alone, if necessary.
All indicators point to a war in late February or early March – which also happen to be two of Whistler’s busiest months.
While no one doubts that a war will hurt tourism in Whistler and B.C., nobody is sure just how much we will be affected, or for how long.
According to Peter Williams, the director of the centre for tourism and policy research at Simon Fraser University, the impact of the war on tourism will depend on the length and severity of the conflict, the effect it has on the already battered economy, and the potential long-term fallout from the conflict – the CIA is among the organizations that believes a war in Iraq will lead to an increase in global terrorism.
Although the war could be a month away, Williams says the industry is already being affected because the war is on people’s minds.
"It’s a tough forecasting environment right now," he said. "The business travel market has been hit by stock market scandals; consumers have been hit by the loss of stock market value; seniors have been hit by the loss of their retirement plans; fewer people are working or they’re worried about their jobs, and they’re wondering if they can afford to take a trip.
"Also, you have people that are still a little uncertain after 9/11 (Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks). Things were bouncing back gradually to where they were before then – and we were in a recession to begin with. The timing of this war couldn’t be worse, it’s not what the industry needs right now. We’ve already seen bankruptcies in the airline industry."
During wartime, people tend to stay close to home and devote their attention to news reports from the conflict. The so-called "CNN-effect" of the previous Gulf War in 1991 resulted in internal tourism dropping by four per cent within the U.S., while international tourism originating in the U.S. dropped by more than 40 per cent.
Williams says the tourism industry is already noticing a profound change in the way people travel as a result of 9/11 and the developing war situation. He says people tend to book vacations at the last minute rather than months in advance, which makes it hard for the hotel, recreation and airline industries to plan for the future.
Because Whistler is within driving distance of several well-populated centres, including Vancouver and Seattle, the resort was able to recover quickly from the effects of 9/11, following a rapid re-organization of marketing efforts. Resorts in the Interior have been slower to bounce back, but business is currently good where there is enough snow to attract visitors.
Although it’s impossible to say just how much a war in Iraq could impact B.C.’s $10 billion a year tourism industry, Williams estimates that a conflict could result in visitor numbers dropping between 20 and 30 per cent compared to previous years.
"If Iraq rolls over like a whimpering puppy in a few days, the overall impact might not be that great. But if bombs start going off in Washington as a result of (war-related) terrorism, then we will see a far more dramatic impact," said Williams.
"You can’t put a reliable figure on it because there isn’t a precedent for this kind of conflict, with all the various factors coming into play like the economy and 9/11. How (a war) is going to affect consumers psychologically, and what kind of effect that has on the tourism industry, is yet to be seen," Williams said.
According to Barrett Fisher, vice president for marketing strategy and business for Tourism Whistler, the issue of a possible war in Iraq has been discussed at length in recent months within the organization as well as with clients and business partners. The consensus is that Whistler is already being affected by the war talk, and that a war is going to have an impact on tourism.
Long-haul tourism from the U.S. and overseas is down, while German and Japanese consumers are being cautious. Travellers from the U.K. and Mexico view Canada as a kind of "safe haven," and are going ahead with bookings.
"The question we are faced with is where to refocus. The regional market, the driving market, is one solution, and that includes B.C., Alberta, Washington State. Toronto is also important because people will fly within Canada. We’re also looking at it from a West Coast perspective, looking at California and places like that," said Fisher.
"What we’ve been discussing in the last couple of months is to have a plan in place to mitigate the potential impacts of a war, and understanding what that would mean to our leisure (tourism) market, as well as our meetings and incentives programs. It’s important for us to constantly adapt to whatever comes down the pipe."
Meetings and incentive business is already down after 9/11 and any damage to the U.S. economy as a result of a war would exacerbate the problems in that market, says Fisher.
"The softening U.S. economy, plus the post-9/11 effect, plus the potential for a war has changed the dynamics for this season," she added.
According to Fisher, the tendency right now is for "closer-in" bookings, which are more of a factor than in the past. As a result it’s more difficult than in previous years to determine what kind of business the resort can expect over the next few months.
"It’s challenged us to be very creative in how we approach the marketplace. Tourism will drop off if there is a war, and especially if there is any kind of retaliation on U.S. soil. There’s a lot of speculation right now on what might happen. Our job is to be prepared with a plan if the worst should happen. We’re prepared."
Brent Leigh, the president of the Whistler Chamber of Commerce, says that a number of local businesses have already expressed concerns that a war in Iraq is going to have a negative impact on the resort.
"Right now I can tell you that uncertainty in the realm of a possible war is already impacting businesses," he said. "For example, realtors will tell you that there’s a lot more humming and hawing from prospective buyers, because they are worried about instability. We’ve gone from people making large real estate decisions to weighing decisions on whether to come at all."
Most of the chamber members Leigh has spoken to on the topic are against the war – not just because it could be bad for business, but also because they believe it will lead to global disharmony.
Recent polls in the U.S., Britain and Canada indicate that there are growing doubts as to whether Iraq poses enough of a threat to justify launching a pre-emptive war. While most support disarming Iraq, the majority of people also believe it should be accomplished through the UN with military conflict only as a last resort.
Several towns and more than 50 cities in the U.S. have already adopted anti-war resolutions stating their opposition to the war, including Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia and Seattle. The goal is to influence senators and members of congress to listen to their constituents and to oppose any war resolutions made in the upper levels of government.
Leigh would like to see the Resort Municipality of Whistler and the Whistler Chamber of Commerce do the same.
"The challenge is that municipalities don’t feel empowered to speak out on global issues," Leigh said. "I feel we should change that, poll our members, and send the results to our MLAs and MPs. The MP for our region is John Reynolds of the Alliance party, and the Alliance is in favour of backing the Americans in a conflict.
"I worry that if we say nothing, the people up top will think we don’t care about the issue and then go and make a decision that could affect all of us," he said.
As for the economic impact of the war on Whistler, Leigh says members of the business community will find ways to bring tourists to the resort.
"We’re always adjusting, always making contingency plans – for more snow, less snow, industry changes, changes to the exchange rates, market demands. We made it through the terrorist attack by focusing more on regional customers.
"This season the mountains have done an amazing job with the snow we’ve had and making it fully operational. We’ve been busy, but a war could change that pretty quickly," Leigh said.
Michael Duggan, the chairman of the board for Tourism British Columbia and the general manager of the Pan Pacific Lodge in Whistler, is more optimistic. TBC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth in the tourism industry this year and next, and is confident that the industry is strong enough to make it through a short war, which is what military analysts are predicting.
"There’s no doubt that the coming conflict is affecting travel habits, and what (war) could mean is anyone’s guess, but the industry recovered quickly after the last Gulf War," said Duggan. "If this war is over quickly, we may not be affected all that much."
Since 9/11, Duggan says there is a noticeable change in the way people book rooms at his hotel. In the past they would book anywhere from a month to a year in advance, but now most visitors only give a few weeks notice.
Still, said Duggan, hotel bookings were strong in January and that will likely continue through February as well. March bookings are still a little soft, but he is confident the hotel will fill up. In addition, bookings are already coming in for April as a result of the Easter holidays and the World Ski and Snowboard Festival.
His chief concern isn’t a war, but a significant downturn in the already weakened U.S. economy.
"That would be a concern for us, but then again we have been resilient in the past. We rebounded from September 11 with a great season, and vacations in Whistler are still in very heavy demand, so again, the effects would be minimal."
While a renewed threat of terrorism would have an adverse effect on business in the short term, the increased border and airport security measures that were introduced after 9/11 have become a fact of life for travellers, says Duggan, and travellers are adjusting to the changes.
"It’s a new reality that we are still getting used to, the industry and our visitors" said Duggan.
B.C.’s tourism industry relies heavily on visitors from the U.S. According to Statistics Canada, B.C. hosted 3,151,539 overnight visitors from the U.S. from January to September of 2002, about 3.2 per cent more than the previous year. By way of comparison, there were 695,682 overnight visitors from Asia/Pacific, and 338,633 from Europe. As a result, Americans accounted for almost 75 per cent of all overnight stays in the province, plus more than 2.1 million day visitors in a ninth month period.
B.C. is not alone in its concerns about the possible effects of war on international tourism. The looming war in Iraq is being cited by Las Vegas, Hawaii, London, Cyprus, Egypt, and Turkey as a key reason for declining visitor numbers in recent months.
