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Making the present obsolete

The best part about high-tech is that the future is always right around the corner. When industry visionaries talk about new technologies and capabilities, they’re usually discussing things that are only a few years away.
andrewbyline

The best part about high-tech is that the future is always right around the corner. When industry visionaries talk about new technologies and capabilities, they’re usually discussing things that are only a few years away.

The reason is that high-tech never really stalls. Back in 1965, Intel founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on computer chips would effectively double every year, and on average he was more or less right. That means that every year the whole standard of computing power – the number of calculations a computer can make in a second – also doubles.

That simple fact has so many implications. For people who use computers to design and test other technologies, most desktops can now do the analytical work you needed supercomputers that took up whole warehouses to figure out just a few decades a go.

For software designers, every increase in computing power results in an increase in capability.

Sometimes increased capability equals increased productivity – although not always – which in turns allows for more innovation in every field, from textiles to genetics.

The paradox of these technological gains is that while they make the future come sooner, it also makes the present obsolete a lot faster. And when it comes to upgrades and making things obsolete, 2006 is a big year.

These are the three biggest tech stories for this year.

Microsoft Windows Vista –  www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/

This is the first major update to Microsoft’s operating system since XP was launched in October of 2001. XP itself is somewhat controversial, mainly because of the security issues that have plagued the system from day one, and many people are looking to Vista to resolve those issues once and for all.

There’s also a Whistler angle to Vista – during the design phase it was called Longhorn, after the Longhorn Saloon where visiting Microsoft execs and programmers hang out après ski.

There’s no drop dead release date yet, although the first limited release test beta has already been made available to developers. The public release, with nine editions ranging from ‘Starter’ to ‘Small Business’ to ‘Ultimate’ is expected in the fall of 2006.

This is a little on the late side. Originally Microsoft planned to release Vista in late 2003, but after deciding to add several new features and increase security, they wisely decided to push the date back.

What can you expect? Basically, most of what’s already in Apple’s Tiger OSX operating system.

There’s a feature called ‘Gadgets’, a group of mini programs similar to Apple’s ‘Widgets’.

There’s ‘Aero’, a redesigned user interface that’s cleaner and easier on the eyes, and which allows for transparencies, animations and other visual gimmicks. It’s been compared to Apple’s ‘Quartz Compositor’, released for OSX back in 2001.

There’s ‘Search’ which is a way of searching through your files and folders similar to Apple’s ‘Spotlight’, and Google Desktop.

There’s ‘XPS’, which is a type of portable document formatting based on the XML language, and which is similar to Adobe’s ‘PDF’ format.

There’s ‘Shell’, a new filing system that gets away from the typical folder/subfolder structure that allows users to put files from multiple locations in a single place. For example, you can have the same image in several folders without making copies or duplicates.

There’s ‘Windows Defender’, which offers far improved security as well as an anti-spyware utility.

The complete list of features is available on the Microsoft website, or by doing a search for Vista in Wikipedia (

www.wikipedia.org ).

PS3/Nintendo Revolution

Both Sony and Nintendo are releasing consoles in 2006. The PS3 is expected in the spring, while the Revolution is expected in late summer or early fall.

Both systems are cutting edge in different ways, and will be vying with the Xbox 360 for supremacy. If you like playing games it’s going to be a tough decision to make – Check out sites like GameSpot (

www.gamespot.com ) and GameGeek (www.gamegeeknews.com), Forever Geek ( www.forevergeek.com ), IGN ( www.ign.com ), Consumer Search (www.consumersearch.com) for comparisons.

Even if you don’t play games you should care a little about who wins the next round of the console wars. Why? Because Sony is bundling the PS3 with the Blu-ray high definition DVD technology, and if PS3 wins so does Blu-ray.

Which brings me to…

Blu-ray versus HD-DVD

I’ve written about this whole sad saga so many times this year I’ve lost count, but it bears repeating. There are two conglomerates of technology and entertainment companies that are lobbying to have their high-definition storage disks become the industry standard. Both have larger capacities to allow for high definition movies and programming to go with all those high definition televisions that are being sold these days. Conventional DVDs just don’t have enough space.

Both technologies have their advantages and drawbacks, and both are being released in 2006. You should start seeing high definition movies on shelves in the next few months.

It’s a safe bet that one of these technologies will one day go the way of the dodo, like Betamax when VHS won control of the VCR market.

For more information, visit

www.bluraydisc.com , www.hddvd.org , and for an impartial view, www.dvdsite.org , www.pcworld.com , www.cnet.com , and www.engadget.com.