Skip to content
Join our Newsletter

Predictions for 2009

I’ve never made a list of technology predictions before so I have no track record to give you any faith in this one.

I’ve never made a list of technology predictions before so I have no track record to give you any faith in this one.

It’s just that technology — both as an industry and as a growing part of our lives — is too interesting not to be tempted to look ahead at what’s next, especially when you consider the economic and environmental challenges ahead. Plus, I read a lot, enough I think to make a few educated guesses.

Here is a handful of predictions for the next year.

 

Household electronics — 2009 will be the year when we start to replace those compact fluorescent bulbs (CFLs) with something even more efficient, light systems based on LED technology. More efficient electrical heating is also in the way with thinner wires, computer fans, and so on. Home-based wind stations will begin to appear in places like Vancouver and Squamish that use compact helix technology to reduce footprint and improve efficiency. Data from your B.C. Hydro meters will start to be accessible online in real time, allowing us to see our power usage in real time and make adjustments.

Automotive — With the Big Three on the ropes and looking for a bailout, expect to see a lot of smaller, more efficient cars hit the market next year, and tax incentives from governments to buy them. The Chevy Volt is not expected until 2010, but I think we’ll start to see electric prototypes on the road in 2009, as well as more electric and hybrid vehicles from other manufacturers. Also expect vehicles that can run on hydrogen, mixed fuels and even compressed air. The Honda Insight 2010 will retail for under $20,000 next year and will overtake the Toyota Prius in hybrid sales. The personal electric scooter will take off in a big way, and you’ll wish you had one for errands.

Computers — If 2008 was the year of the netbook then 2009 is the year of the endurobook (trademark pending), a line of smaller laptops that can last 10 to 20 hours on a single battery charge. New lines of computers will have two hard drives, one solid state to house your operating system and core software, and one of the spinning disk variety to provide massive amounts of storage. Nvidia will start to compete with Intel and AMD in the processor market. Apple will release an iMac with a touch screen, but HP’s new Touch will be vastly improved the next time around and will actually put up a fight.

Software — Microsoft will release Windows 7 Beta before the summer, to mixed reviews. It will be less annoying and better looking than Vista, but will continue to be slow. Apple Snow Leopard will win all the awards, and boost Apple to more than 10 per cent of the computer market. Linux will also gain a few points of market share, but nothing dramatic — still needs to be more user friendly on the backend, especially when it comes to installing and updating your software. As well, the price of software will come down — expect Office under $100, as well as low-end versions of popular software like Adobe Photoshop to compete with free software like Gimp.

Music — The Recording Industry Association of America has announced plans to stop suing downloaders, but probably has another ace up its sleeve. Could be new digital rights management software, and it could be new laws for police and customs officials that come with a system of fines for offenders. Could also be a mandatory industry tax on all high-speed Internet connections. Apple iTunes will get rid of DRM completely, or so I hope — the last barrier standing in the way for me actually shopping there.

Games — The gaming industry surpassed Hollywood for revenues in 2008, and will continue to gain ground in 2009 with some amazing titles on the way. Nobody will touch Blizzard’s World of Warcraft for online role-playing supremacy but I believe they will start to lose a few customers as the economic crisis forces people to cut back and, I dunno, get jobs. As for the consoles, Mad World will attract serious gamers to the Wii, as well as new skateboard games that use the Wii Board — expect a solid Winter Games game to capitalize on 2010. Resident Evil 5 will be the year’s bestseller, along with the two Halo titles, Halo 3 Recon and Halo Wars . Final Fantasy XIII will also be up there for sales.

Gadgets — Microsoft will release a Zune phone to compete with the Apple iPhone, but despite positive reviews it just won’t be as good or do as much. Google phones will start to be more popular, however, and I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Canada’s Research In Motion and Google might start to have a few meetings — RIM phones are still considered the best by design but not in terms of software, while Google has the software but no killer phone. The next iPod will be a watch with wireless headphones for people working out… or so I hope.