Predictions for 2010

Before I sat down to write my tech predictions for 2010 I decided to look back at my 2009 predictions to see how I did. The Internet meme that could best describe it is "FAIL."

While LED lights are starting to become available they have not reached the market widely as I predicted. Smart hydro meters also did not arrive, although B.C. Hydro can give you more information on your account than ever by visiting their website.

The Chevy Volt has made a few appearances in advance of its 2010 release, but there was not nearly as much buzz as I expected. I also predicted that the lower-priced Honda Insight would displace the Toyota Prius in sales and I was spectacularly wrong. As well, a plug-in Toyota Prius concept car received more attention than the Chevy Volt.

I also predicted that the emphasis for portable computers would shift from size to power and that we would see a line of smaller laptops capable of 10 to 20 hours of work on a single charge. Didn't happen, with Acer coming closest with a six hour-plus netbook that was just released this month.

I predicted that Nvidia would jump into the processor market against Intel, AMD, IBM and others, and it appears I was a little hasty - it's happening, but not until 2010 or 2011.

I also predicted that Apple would release an iMac with a touch screen, that Windows 7 would be a modest success instead of a massive one, that companies like Adobe would start to offer lower-priced low-end versions of software, that Resident Evil 5 would be the top-selling game this year, that World of Warcraft would lose subscribers instead of signing up half of China, that Mad World would make the Wii an option for serious games, that Microsoft would release a Zune phone, that iPod Shuffles would migrate to watches.

That's a lot of wrong to live down in just one year. My list is a lot more cautious this year.


Computers - Longer battery life will be a factor this year for laptops and netbooks as lower-power chips and screens become available. I'm guessing that by the end of 2010 we'll see our first eight-hour laptop. Apple will release a tablet, as expected. Touch screens and all-in-ones will be a lot more popular and touch-screen laptops will start to make an appearance.


Gadgets - Google will release its own branded phone by the second quarter of 2010. While no iPhone competitor, the lure of built-in VOIP will make it very popular. Apple will release a fourth generation iPod Touch with a camera and upgrades to the software that will allow access to the directory and for users to open more than one program at a time. Microsoft will demo a Zune phone for release in 2011 - too late to matter. Colour e-books will debut.

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