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Murphy was an optimist

Don't sit there mumbling Talkin' trash If you want to have a ball, You got to go out and spend some cash And let the good times roll now, I'm talkin' 'bout the good times, Well it makes no difference whether you're young or old, All you got to do is

Don't sit there mumbling

Talkin' trash

If you want to have a ball,

You got to go out and spend some cash

And let the good times roll now,

I'm talkin' 'bout the good times,

Well it makes no difference whether you're young or old,

All you got to do is get together and let the good times roll

— Ray Charles

Whether you measure the success of a winter in centimetres, skier visits, hotel room nights, revenue per room, tips, sales, schwag or some other personal standard, the winter of 2004-05 has been a disappointment. The final numbers may show that it wasn’t really as bad as it seemed in, say, the middle of the January monsoon, but neither was it as good a winter as most everyone anticipated last fall. Powder in April, spring skiing in February, record rains in January – it’s left everyone confused.

And it comes after three successive winters where business was negatively affected by a series of events unanticipated and/or beyond our control: terrorist attacks, war, SARS, a rising Canadian dollar, travel fears and airline failures, to name a few.

But while Whistler, collectively, may feel the need for some emotional support – at times if feels like anything that can go wrong has gone wrong – the rest of the province seems to be giddy with optimism. Banks, think tanks and economic analysts all seem to be forecasting great things ahead for British Columbia. And there are all kinds of signs to support their forecasts.

The Asia-Pacific region, once again, seems to be the future. In fact, we’re having trouble keeping up with the present. Port facilities in Vancouver and Prince Rupert are planning expansions to handle the never-ending supply of goods coming from Asia. Rail and road infrastructure to support these facilities is also being improved.

After a few months of relatively lukewarm activity, real estate in the Lower Mainland is heating up again. It hasn’t really cooled off in the last seven or eight years but it keeps finding new momentum. And international interest in B.C. real estate is extending to parts of the Interior and Vancouver Island.

The promise of oil exploration off the B.C. coast also has a lot of people excited, although that excitement is split between those in favour and those opposed to offshore drilling.

Likewise, the tourism industry has gained new prominence in the last couple of years with the provincial government’s commitment to a resort development strategy, doubling of tourism funding and investments in tourism training programs.

This support for tourism, of course, dovetails with the opportunities brought about by hosting the 2010 Winter Olympics, and which are being well supported by corporate Canada. Olympic sponsorship has, to date, far surpassed all projections – which is a good thing, because construction costs are likely to surpass estimates.

And on top of these economic indicators B.C. has enjoyed a period of relative labour peace, which is no small feat in itself.

On the political front, the provincial and federal governments are trying to sustain the optimism with cash handouts and other gifts. It’s hard to keep up with the provincial Liberals’ announcements, they are coming so thick and fast in the lead-up to next month’s election.

Meanwhile the federal Liberals, worried that their minority government may collapse at any moment over some new revelation from the Gomery inquiry or a non-confidence vote on the budget, are – true to their word – making sure B.C. remembers them whenever the next federal election is called. As Globe and Mail columnist Jane Taber pointed out this week, it was a strategic decision to have Prime Minister Paul Martin and Industry Minister David Emerson in Whistler to announce the Canadian Tourism Commission was being moved to Vancouver. Taber quoted Mark Marissen, the Liberal campaign co-chairman in B.C., as saying: "We're going to Whistler not just because it’s the home of the Olympics but because it is a riding that we think we can win. And very much because we think we can win it."

How far this sort of optimism extends beyond the May 17 provincial election and the next federal election remains to be seen.

There are also land mines on the road ahead. The demand for skilled labour is still expected to exceed supply in the next decade in B.C., as in most of North America. The population is still aging and there are still fewer corporate head offices in Vancouver than in Calgary. And China’s continued rise as a global economic power may become an issue if it starts to rival the United States and Canada is caught in the middle having to chose between the two.

But even discounting the political opportunism of a minority federal government and a provincial government seeking re-election, there are real reasons for optimism. British Columbia, which has looked inward for so long it has turned parochialism into a virtue, is slowly realizing it can define its place in the world.

And this is good for Whistler, too. It may not have an immediate impact on snowfall or the real estate market but those will rebound, and virtually every other measurement should increase. Even Murphy was an optimist.