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Games impact on housing small but lasting

CMHC study predicts 117 per cent growth in Sea to Sky corridor by 2031

By Clare Ogilvie

The 2010 Winter Olympic Games will have a positive economic impact on the Sea to Sky corridor.

But it will not be a transformative event on its own. That’s the finding of a recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation research study.

It found that the population of the Sea to Sky corridor would be 11 per cent higher than if the Games did not come to the region and projected that by 2031 there would be a total of 75,000 residents — that’s an increase of 117 per cent over 2001.

That would result in a housing occupancy demand for 18,700 units, increasing housing stock from 13,000 occupied units in 2001 to 31,700 by 2031.

Between 2001 and 2031 there would be a demand for 10,700 additional single detached units, 5,400 attached ground oriented units and 22,600 apartment units under the Games scenario. The impact of the Games would mean 19 per cent more occupied units added within the Sea to Sky corridor over the projection period than there would be under a no-Games scenario.

The study also said the corridor will experience a housing turnover in the ownership segment of the market that would be 10.8 per cent greater for ground-oriented units and 9.8 per cent greater for apartments. Housing turnover in the rental segment of the market would be 10.9 per cent greater for ground-oriented units and 10.3 per cent greater for apartments.

CMHC commissioned The Urban Futures Institute and CitySpaces Consulting Ltd. to study the potential impact of the Olympics on the demand for housing from 2006 until the event and beyond.

“When we thought about doing this project the drive behind it was really that we were unable to find literature out there that looked at the impact of a mega event on housing… and it happens at every major big event,” said CMHC regional economist Carol Frketich.

“So just the fact that this study took a closer look at this issue and was able to quantify some results in terms of what it would mean in terms of attracting migration, housing demand, the type of housing demand, whether it was rental versus home ownership, and apartments versus single detached is important.”

As part of the study researchers looked at the experiences of other Olympic Games host cities, B.C.’s housing market, and economic growth including estimates for Olympic related spending, which the CMHC pegged at $4.9 billion.

The study projected that the southwest region, which includes Greater Vancouver and the Sea to Sky corridor, will draw 94,000 more people looking for work than it would have if the Games weren’t coming here.

Frketich said Vancouver will feel some of the effects of the Games but it is such a large urban centre the impacts will be modest. The corridor will feel it more, she said.

“… When you look at the Sea to Sky and the (Squamish-Lillooet Regional District) the impact will be larger because you are looking at a smaller base,” said Frketich.

“So the additional housing will have a bigger impact and the population inflow will have a bigger impact as well.”

Within this scenario Whistler’s unique position of setting a cap on growth with a projected population of 14,000 may lead to higher real estate prices in some segments.

Whistler Mayor Ken Melamed said the resort community’s adoption of the Natural Step Framework and its use of “backcasting” has helped Whistler get ready to deal with issues related to growth. He believes it’s a good method for communities to use.

“… We are suggesting that the approach we are taking, backcasting and the Natural Step, is one that is very advantageous for a community to decide what it wants to be,” he said.

“So maybe that is a process that our corridor partners will go through and then that will determine whether it is a 100 per cent population increase, or a fraction of that, or more.”

Melamed is concerned about growth in the corridor and how it will impact Whistler and that is why he is eagerly awaiting the SLRD’s regional growth strategy.

Director of planning for the SLRD Steven Olmstead said it should be ready by this summer.

“(It) is specifically looking at how do we accommodate another 35,000 or 40,000 people primarily in the Sea to Sky corridor but also looking at a modest amount of growth in the northern region around Lillooet,” he said.

“The great majority of the growth will occur in the Sea to Sky corridor and part of the RGS process is looking at existing community plans in areas and trying to focus the growth into more compact communities.

“(The RGS will) look at how to accommodate the sheer numbers, the doubling of the population, that is the big challenge. Then looking at managing that growth, not only where should it occur but how should it occur as well, and also what are the environmental impacts, what kind of social conditions have to be considered as we grow and as the population ages. So it is being prepared for changing demographics, so health services and protective services are involved in some of the discussions as well.”

The RGS has been underway since about 2004. It has long been realized, said Olmstead, that the corridor is ripe for growth since it is close to Vancouver, the highway is being upgraded, and it is an attractive place to live.