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Classifieds suggest economic bottom reached

JACKSON, Wyo. - Economic analyst Jonathan Schechter seems to have correctly predicted last autumn the bottoming-out of the real estate market in Jackson and Teton County - a bottoming that seems to have been occurring in other resort markets as well.

JACKSON, Wyo. - Economic analyst Jonathan Schechter seems to have correctly predicted last autumn the bottoming-out of the real estate market in Jackson and Teton County - a bottoming that seems to have been occurring in other resort markets as well.

More recently, he took on the challenge of the economy there more broadly. Given the challenge of predicting economic highs and lows, he says he might have more wisely quit while ahead.

But he plunged ahead, studying the classified advertisements of the Jackson Hole News & Guide, in which his analysis appears, going back to January 2005. Specifically, he measured two barometers: the column inches of help-wanted and rental housing listings.

The help-wanted ads suggest the economy crested in the winter of 2007-08, then began slowing in spring of 2008, around the time that investment bank Bear Stearns imploded. After that, he reports, things went into an 18-month free fall, finally stabilizing late last year.

Rental-housing ads hit an all-time low in summer of 2008, lagging a bit behind the peak in help-wanted advertising. Mirroring the help-wanted ads, rental housing ads peaked this past fall and since then have leveled out.

Using these and other statistical tools, he concludes that "starting in October or so, the tide seems to have turned, and at a minimum, the rate of decline has flattened out."

Schechter adds: "Whether growth will occur anytime soon is anyone's guess, but judging by newspaper advertising, it does seem that... the local economy has hit bottom."

 

New avalanche rating scale coming

REVELSTOKE, B.C. -A new North American avalanche danger rating system has been announced and will be put into use next winter.

The new rating system has five levels of warning, replacing the existing three levels. Also, avalanche forecasters say that they believe the new system will more easily convey inherently complex information in a simpler, more unified format.

"The new system really spells it out in a very digestible manner using colours and numbers and icons," said Cam Campbell, forecaster for the Canadian Avalanche Centre.

"It really reaches out to a wide variety of learning types and catches the attention of a wide variety of people," he said. The Revelstoke Times Review also notes that the new system overcomes some ambiguities present in the existing system.

 

Health pushed as an economic driver

VAIL, Colo.- As part of its perpetual conversation about economic diversification, Vail is now talking about more aggressively encouraging outdoor sports, wellness and fitness as an economic driver. In particular, the target seems to be women.

Business interests in Vail last year retained James Chung, of Boston-based Reach Advisors, to help come up with economic diversification strategies. He says that people are spending more of their discretionary income on fitness and wellness, which are becoming the "new marker of wealth."

Chung points to seminal civil rights legislation passed by the U.S. Congress in 1972. Called Title IX, it mandated that females be given more-or-less equal access to sports programs in schools. As a result there's been a shift away from gender-segregated sports.

Called Vail 360, as in degrees, the name is also similar to another initiative in recent years called 365, as in days. The obvious goal is to keep hotels and restaurants filled to a greater extent.

Many of the things that he calls for aren't particularly new. But he maintains that they need to be expanded. He does point out, however, that incomes have been shifting. While most Americans have seen their incomes decline during the last decade, households headed by couples with bachelor's and master's degrees have gained. And second, he points out that women in their 20s are actually making more money then men in their 20s - a profound change with consequences sure to have telling changes - and not just ski towns - during coming decades.

 

Trying to fleece Colorado clouds

DENVER, Colo. - A half-century after cloud-seeding began in the West, it continues to be regarded by many as something akin to chicken-noodle soup for colds. Or, on the more sinister side, snake oil.

But water authorities in thirsty states of the American Southwest have no such doubts. For several winters, they have been increasing their budgets for seeding clouds passing over the mountains of Colorado, where about half of the total volume in the Colorado River originates.

"We're believers down here," says Tom Ryan, resource specialist with the Metropolitan Water District of Southwestern California. "The lower-basin folks believe it works. We believe that the science is adequate to move forward."

While still relatively small, just $152,000 this winter, the money from lower-basin states has more than tripled since 2006. The money has been used to spew silver iodide particles into clouds over the San Juan Mountains, the Gunnison Basin and Grand Mesa, all regions with ski areas. The states also contributed to renewed seeding operations at Winter Park in partnership with ski-area operator Intrawest.

Vail Resorts also continued its seeding operation for Vail and Beaver Creek, a program that began in 1978. It's Colorado's longest-continuous seeding operation.

The lower-basin states see cloud-seeding as a viable way to increase water in the stressed Colorado River Basin. On behalf of those states, consulting firm Black & Veatch two years ago completed a study that evaluated ways to augment existing water supplies. Desalinization was deemed highly effective but extremely expensive.

The study even evaluated the feasibility of building a pipeline from the Mississippi River to the Southwest. (Very reliable water, but enormously expensive and fraught with political issues).

Cloud-seeding, along with removal of thirsty tamarisk plants, an invasive species found along rivers, was deemed most cost-effective. It's relatively inexpensive, requires few permits and can be rapidly deployed.

But seeding operations remain under a general cloud of suspicion during any season. Cloud-seeders insist they can augment snowpacks 10 per cent to 15 per cent - provided they have clouds to seed. Seeding, they say, cannot break a drought.

The most firm scientific record comes from experiments conducted during the 1960s above Fremont Pass, between Vail, Breckenridge and Leadville. Those controlled-group studies did suggest a 10 per cent or better increase.

Wanting firmer evidence the Wyoming Legislature appropriated funding for experiments using control groups. After three winters of tests in the Sierra Madre and Medicine Bow ranges of southern Wyoming, scientist Dan Breed reports "teasers" and "trends," but not enough cases for conclusions with strong confidence levels.

The Wyoming Legislature this winter agreed to bankroll another three years of experiments. For the time being, the jury remains out - but not in California, Arizona and Nevada.

 

Benefits of roundabouts sited

CANMORE, Alberta - Construction of traffic roundabouts in lieu of traffic lights continues to expand in North America. Now comes the Bow Valley Clean Air Society, which wants Canmore, at the entrance to Banff National Park, to replace traffic-stopping lights with the traffic-slowing circles.

This group cites environmental benefits, reports the Rocky Mountain Outlook. Because cars won't sit and idle while waiting for the light to change, emission of carbon dioxide and other pollutants will decline, said the society's Ken Blackwood. He also cited studies that show reduced accident rates. And, of course, roundabouts require no electricity, unlike traffic lights.

Roundabouts are somewhat different than the older traffic circles, because traffic enters at a slight angle, so there is no need to stop unless traffic is already in the circle.

The modern traffic roundabout comes from Australia. In the North American West, however, it seems to have spread from Vail, Colo. City officials there, perplexed about what to do at the town's main entrance, had to travel to the East Coast in the mid-1990s to see one in action.

Amid warnings of certain chaos come the first snowstorm, town leaders gulped and ordered in the backhoes. The snowstorm arrived almost immediately after completion. Instead of immediate failure, success was almost instantaneous. Soon after, traffic roundabouts began showing up in other resort towns and cities in Colorado

 

Law and order at issue

REVELSTOKE, B.C. - Along the TransCanada Highway, worries seem to be mounting about the potential for lawlessness in resort towns.

In Revelstoke, town councillors were fretting whether a proposed bar that purports plans to serve wine by the glass in genteel surroundings would, given the chance, degenerate into another darkened gin mill that breeds drunkenness and disorder.

"I am not swayed by the idea of it being a high-brow wine bar," said Mayor David Raven. But he, and other councillors, were also worried about a recommended denial of a liquor license sending out an anti-business and anti-change signal, reports the Revelstoke Time Review.

In Banff, meanwhile, city councillors were negotiating with provincial authorities about a planned reduction of police by about a third. "It's very important that Banff is perceived as a safe and secure community," said Mayor John Stutz. "Certainly we are one of Canada's gems, and there is an expectation of that."

At issue, explained the Rocky Mountain Outlook, was whether the province or the municipality picks up the tab for the Mounties.


Hunters encouraged to kill more bears

ASPEN, Colo.- The Colorado Division of Wildlife wants to encourage hunters to kill more bears in the Aspen and Vail areas. Last year, 630 hunting licenses were available. But wildlife biologists propose to make 1,200 licenses available this year.

Why so many? Especially now that they cannot use dogs, bear hunters seem to have a very low rate of success. Last year, for example, only 33 bears were killed by hunters in the Aspen, Vail, and Glenwood Springs area, a success rate of just 5.2 per cent, an agency spokesman told the Aspen Times.

In contrast, police and wildlife officers killed 20 bears in the Aspen area last year after various conflicts. Aspen more recently adopted regulations requiring wildlife-resistant trash containers and rules limiting the hours when trash can be placed outside. Vail and Snowmass Village have had somewhat similar rules for several years.

 

Third interfaith chapel in Vail

EDWARDS, Colo. -For a community of its size, Vail doesn't have a lot of churches. Instead, the different congregations share space - and costs - in an interfaith chapel near the middle of town. A similar arrangement exists 10 miles west at Beaver Creek.

Now, a third interfaith chapel will soon open at Edwards, just a few more miles downvalley. The Vail Daily reports that Episcopalians, Lutherans, Presbyterians and B'Nai Jews will share the facility.

 

Growing season still fleeting

STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, Colo. - Nolan Doesken, who was the sort of kid who grew wide-eyed with excitement at every turn of weather when growing up in Illinois, was in Steamboat Springs recently.

Doesken is now the Colorado state climatologist, and while in Steamboat to speak to gardeners, he suggested it's a pursuit for the truly determined.

"You get this window almost every year from somewhere around the fourth of July to somewhere around the end of August when you have pretty good weather, and it might stay above freezing - it won't for sure, but it might - for maybe five or six weeks. And that's what you call growing season," he said.

The Steamboat Pilot notes a surge of new community gardens there, similar to the profusion elsewhere in mountain towns and other communities.