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Only modest increase in visitors expected this winter

Hurricanes, new passport rules, fuel costs, strong dollar all play a role in forecasts

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita may have been thousands of miles away from Whistler, but they are buffeting the resort nonetheless.

Research done by Tourism Whistler suggests that the hurricanes are playing a role in keeping U.S. travellers at home, and that trend is likely to hit Whistler in the coming months.

"What we are seeing now are some new issues in the U.S. market, most notably the hurricanes," said Ian Dunn, manager of research at Tourism Whistler.

"The economic impact of those appears to be affecting travel."

Tourism Whistler is now downgrading their forecasts for U.S. bookings from a seven per cent increase this coming winter season (November to April) to a three per cent increase.

The hurricanes prompted the U.S. government to ask its citizens not to make travel plans or travel unless necessary until the nation’s energy infrastructure is fully operational again. And the high cost of fuel is also making travel less attractive said Dunn.

"(High fuel cost) is affecting consumer confidence," he said. "Consumer confidence in September dropped 19 points compared to August – that is the lowest it has been in two years. It is a reflection of how consumers are feeling about their current economic situation, so if they are not happy with their current situation they are not going to travel."

Added to this is an on-going concern by travellers about booking because of the rain Whistler experienced last January, the continued strength of the Canadian dollar, and confusion over new U.S. passport rules.

"We are facing some really tough conditions especially in the U.S. market, and that market is a key market for Whistler," said Dunn. "When it is up Whistler does well and when it is down then Whistler is in trouble.

"It is hard to be positive."

Tourism Whistler is predicting that the U.S. market will be down, especially in December and January as the United States continues to recover. The U.S. destination market will be more heavily affected than the regional market.

To date, experts are predicting that the weather this season will be average. If that is the case, said Dunn, its likely confidence will return to the regional market and Washington and local skiers will come back.

The only wrench could be the U.S. passport issue.

"We are planning on doing some hard research on this very shortly," said Dunn. "Right now what we are hearing is that there is a perception out there that passports are required to travel to Canada even though they are not at this stage. So there is some confusion around this and that could be having an impact."

Any recovery in the U.S. market will be weather dependent and will likely come well after Christmas. It will also help having the Easter holiday break move back into April.

Tourism Whistler also expects to see some declines in visitors from the United Kingdom and Australia early on.

"Originally we had them flat, now we have made that into a slight decline based on feedback from tour operators," said Dunn, adding that the wet weather last year is making destination bookers behave like regional travellers.

Tourism Whistler is predicting some destination markets to increase overall, but most of that growth will occur in the second half of the season.

"If we have a normal season we can expect to see some pretty significant growth in February and March and some really strong growth in April because of Easter," said Dunn.

Whistler-Blackcomb, well aware of the challenges the resort is facing, is marketing heavily to its major partners in travel.

"A lot of the marketing initiatives are hitting those markets now and we have a lot of initiatives planned as we move forward," said Stuart Rempel, senior vice president of sales and marketing at Whistler-Blackcomb.

Whistler-Blackcomb will be focusing on its new offerings, he said, including the tube park, expanded family zone, improved trails and increased snow-making capacity.

Rempel said the value of the experience is being heavily pushed and early results for offerings such as season’s passes are looking good.

Marketing in destination markets has been underway for some time.

"We are doing a lot more in those markets," said Rempel. "But we really can’t let up. We need to focus on the values, we need to focus on the deals."

And Whistler-Blackcomb can’t do it alone.

"We need to make sure that everyone in the resort is conscious of that and when they come here the traveller has to be delivered the best possible service, the best experience, and the best prices," said Rempel.

It’s also up to the whole resort to get regional and other markets excited about the coming season.

"I hope that everyone in the resort is talking to their friends about the snow that fell on the mountains as we move towards opening," said Rempel. "There is a need, as we move toward opening, for everyone in the resort to talk to their friends, to talk up the snow, and get everyone excited about the season."

Whistler-Blackcomb is officially scheduled to open Nov. 24, but if the weather co-operates Rempel said Blackcomb may open earlier.

"Opening the mountains and getting the message out about opening will allay some of the fears people have about snowfall," he said, adding that the number of regional skiers has gone up every year for the last five years, excluding last year.

"We don’t think people should worry about the snowfall."