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Talking weather

Bad winter, worse spring – how is Whistler holding up?

Talk to anyone in town for any length of time, and the topic of weather always comes up – not because we’re making small talk but because it’s been on our minds a lot lately.

Until the snow finally hit in March, following the driest spell in Whistler’s ski history, everyone was asking what happened to winter. Now, after three months of rain, clouds and cold, punctuated here and there by the odd sunny (or partly sunny) day, everyone is wondering what happened to spring and summer.

While it’s not unusual to have wet Aprils, Mays, Junes and Julys, the trend was just the opposite in 2003 and 2004, with the region experiencing record heat waves and droughts.

And while a little rain is normal at this time of year, this isn’t exactly a normal amount of cloud cover or precipitation we’re experiencing – the pendulum has swung from one extreme to another.

According to the July 3 Vancouver Sun, this June was the third bleakest on record for the city, with the fewest recorded hours of sunshine since 1971.

Vancouver saw about 152 hours of sun last month, far less than the average of 229 hours. By way of comparison, June of 2004 had 306 hours of sun, and June of 2003 saw about 272 hours.

While Whistler and Vancouver frequently have different weather and are subject to different systems, the overall trends have been similar for the entire south coast region – rain, low temperatures, clouds, and more rain.

What does that mean for businesses in Whistler, who in recent history have had to contend with the post-9/11 tourism market, a soft U.S. economy, road closures, village construction, rising rents, and one of the worst winters on record?

What does that mean for residents who depend on those businesses and the tourists for their livelihood, and depend on the sun for rest and relaxation?

There’s a saying that "everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it." But in Whistler, that’s not exactly true. Whistler-Blackcomb has about 170 snow guns ready to go when winter storms won’t co-operate – one of the main reasons the winter of 2004-05 wasn’t a bigger economic disaster for the town. The accommodation, restaurant and retail sectors are also always ready to offer up deals to keep the tourists coming.

It’s not all doom and gloom. The Whistler Mountain Bike Park is seeing record numbers again, and glacier camps have benefited from additional snowfalls and a slower spring melt. The rain put a bit of a damper on glacier camps last week and the camps were rained out last Friday, but overall things are looking up.

The slower melt and rainfall could also benefit rafting companies by prolonging their season into the late summer or even early fall – providing that the weather improves and visitors continue to come to Whistler.

Wet weather has also kept the fire risk low, allowing for backcountry activities and construction that was curbed during last year’s drought conditions.

All of this optimism in the face of so much rain brings to mind another weather expression that may be just as fitting – "if you don’t like the weather, then stick around – it’ll change."

The poor weather adds another layer of hardship to the equation, no question, but Whistler is taking the long view while addressing the short-term issues the best it can.

Alaska highs and Whistler lows

The main system that’s setting weather patterns for the south coast of B.C. – and much of Central Canada, originates far to the north.

"When June came in it was very much like a normal June, and by normal I mean that it’s a very common pattern that in June we get a large upper disturbance that forms in the Gulf of Alaska," explained Environment Canada outreach officer Anne McCarthy. "They call it an upper low, and it’s a bit like setting off a big sprinkler in your yard. It spins around up there and keeps spinning off bands of cloud and showers at us. Every once in a while it will just… move from the coast inland and give them some rain as well.

"What sometimes happens in June is that no sooner does one system move on inland than the next one spins up behind it. That’s what we’re seeing this year."

According to McCarthy, June is usually a disappointing month for coast dwellers because of this disturbance.

"Out here, June is very much part of spring. People who have been here for a lot of years will tell you that summer doesn’t really start until July, and sometimes it doesn’t start until mid-July."

Although the system affecting Whistler is typical, the weather it has created is worse than normal. In terms of sunshine, McCarthy believes Whistler is experiencing the same gloom as Vancouver and Victoria.

The constant cloud cover has resulted in somewhat cooler weather as well – the average temperature for June was 18.4 degrees Celsius compared to 19.4 degrees in a typical year.

However, the clouds have had an insulating effect as well, resulting in warmer nights – 8.3 degrees compared to an average of 6.9 degrees. When averaged out together, June was close to normal in terms of temperatures.

Rainfall was another story for Whistler, with 76 millimetres compared to the June average of 56 mm.

"It was excessive but it wasn’t a record for the area – no cigar there, even though it would still be too wet to light a cigar," said McCarthy.

While daytime temperatures were not much below normal, McCarthy suggests that the dampness and the cloud cover probably made it feel colder – as did the fact that June was so warm the previous two years.

While the "upper low" coming out of the north brought poor weather to the coast, the same system was responsible for floods in Alberta, violent storms in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and a heat wave in Ontario that saw temperatures climb to over 30 degrees for two solid weeks.

"If those were the options I think we’re better off here," said McCarthy.

Whether the poor weather of the spring and summer is related in any way to the poor weather of the winter is difficult for climatologists to say, although McCarthy acknowledges that it is a question that is coming up a lot lately.

There is growing concern that recent weather trends may be connected to climate change, which is thought to be at least partly responsible for recent extreme weather events, the warming of polar and mountainous regions, and changes to water levels and ocean temperatures.

However, connecting weather events specifically to climate change is impossible, especially when weather events do fall within a normal range of conditions.

"What I can say is that I’ve been looking at weather for years and it never fails to amaze me," said McCarthy. "When you start keeping hard statistics on weather it’s amazing what can happen and the kinds of extremes we’re seeing. It’s such a useful thing to keep these long-term records so we know what’s normal, and what the extremes are. After you have that data you can start to work backwards and try to learn what the causes are."

The good news for Whistler is that the long-term forecast looks sunnier, warmer and more typical for the month of July.

"It’s always difficult to use long-range models, it’s just one viewpoint into the future, but the indications of some of those models is that we’ll likely be heading into more normal July weather (this week)," said McCarthy. "By the sound of things it’s going to be very welcome."

The view from the top

From Whistler-Blackcomb’s perspective, things could definitely be worse.

During the lowest point of the winter season, when the mountains were in danger of losing mid-mountain runs and the ski-outs to record rains and warm temperatures, Whistler-Blackcomb pulled out all the stops to keep things open. Helicopters were used to haul cargo nets full of snow down the mountain to plug in some gaps, as well as to bring supplies to the alpine lodges. Two snowcats were modified into dump trucks, with buckets mounted onto their backs to carry snow where it was needed.

The mountains also worked with hotel partners to offer package deals on lessons, lift tickets, accommodation and food, which kept tourists coming to the resort.

All of that effort paid off in March and April when the skies at last dropped 340 centimetres (134 inches) of snow on the local mountains, ensuring that tourists were still coming to enjoy the skiing and snowboarding.

While the late winter storms were welcomed, nobody could have predicted that they would carry over into the late spring and summer. In May, the last month that snow data is collected, the mountains saw an additional 45 cm of snow, the highest tally in over five years – along with a corresponding amount of rain in the valley.

Still, Whistler-Blackcomb’s summer operations have been mostly positive so far, even without the sunny skies and views that exemplify the mountains in the off-season.

For example, the Whistler Mountain Bike Park is having another good season, and rider numbers are currently up about 10 per cent over last year.

"What we’re seeing in terms of the quality of the product, on the lower part of the park – which is Olympic Station and below – the moisture is really helping the trails because of how dry and dusty they get," said Christina Moore, public relations manager for Whistler-Blackcomb. "We’re getting really good feedback on the trails from our guests.

"The Garbanzo Zone is not as good. It’s still really wet up there, it never really dried after the winter. There are definitely some muddy people who still go up there riding, and Freight Train (bike trail) will definitely help, but we really need two or three days of really hot and dry summer weather to dry it out."

The summer camps on Blackcomb’s Horstman Glacier have also benefited from a colder, wetter spring. Although the glacier was closed one day last week due to rain, the actual snow conditions are the best seen in recent years.

"If we had some really hot weather like we’ve seen in the past, the glacier wouldn’t be in such great shape as it is right now," said Moore. "The weather has helped to preserve the snow up there and the groomers have done a really great job, to the best of their ability, to keep the different lanes used by different groups ready. There are big jumps and stunt lines up there, smooth racing tracks, mogul tracks, a halfpipe – everything the groups need.

"The camps came in with low expectations because of the snow we had this winter, and they’re saying it’s in the best shape they’ve ever seen."

Additional groups are even coming to Whistler from Mount Hood, the other leading glacier training centre in the region, because of the poor snow conditions in Oregon.

Concerns over the rate that the Horstman Glacier is receding have been diffused this season by the weather. Heading into the summer, crews put up fences to hold onto the snow, while changing grooming techniques to ensure the longevity of the glacier. There were also plans to make snow on the glacier, replacing the ice that has been lost to heat waves and dry spells in recent years.

So far the snowmaking hasn’t been necessary, and the fences are doing their job. The glacier may actually grow this year, despite running a series of successful camps.

"We’re on track to continue with our closing date of Aug. 1 with the glacier," said Moore. "That’s nice for us considering that a lot of the camps came in with such low expectations and even shortened their camp dates, not knowing how long they would be able to operate this year."

The Blackcomb Base Adventure Zone is also doing well this year, with an increase in the number of people using the mini golf and Westcoaster Luge. The new Magic Park, a small beginner bike park under the Magic Chair, has also been a hit with visiting families.

If there is one sour spot for Whistler-Blackcomb it’s the low number of sightseers. When it’s cloudy or rainy the visitor numbers drop off considerably. The Peak Chair is also open to tourists this year for the first time, but once again numbers are generally weather dependent.

"Overall we’re down significantly in this department, but when we have had a few nice windows in the weather the numbers have been way up over what we would normally see," said Moore.

Whistler-Blackcomb has never operated as many lifts in the summer season. On Blackcomb the Wizard Chair, the Solar Coaster, 7 th Heaven, the glacier T-bar and the Magic Chair are turning. On Whistler there is the Village Gondola, the Fitzsimmons Chair, the Garbanzo Chair and now the Peak Chair as well.

"For us it’s business as usual, although we are keeping our fingers crossed for some warmer weather," said Moore.

Numbers down, but relief is in sight

For Whistler hotels, visitor numbers were down in May and June, but the good news is that group bookings should pick up towards the end of the summer.

"The correlation between weather and how the resort is doing is really strong," said Arlene Schieven, Tourism Whistler’s vice president of marketing.

"If you look to last winter, in November, December and the first part of January we were tracking about nine per cent ahead of the year before. But as soon as the rain hit the numbers fell off and we ended up low for the whole season… so it’s clear the dramatic impact that poor weather can have."

According to Schieven, weather is also impacting the summer season. For example, bookings for the Victoria Day long weekend in May were about 20 per cent below last year because of the poor weather. Bookings for the U.S. Memorial Day weekend, where the weather was good for the most part, were up 19 per cent.

In the summer months Whistler is also more dependent on the regional market, which tends to book at the last minute and is easily influenced one way or another by the weather forecast.

By way of comparison, the destination market remained almost unchanged last winter because visitors planned their trips well in advance. However, regional visitor numbers declined by about 10 per cent.

Adding to Whistler’s woes, the number of group bookings for this summer is down compared to last year. That’s not a result of the weather, says Schieven, but rather is tied to the cyclical nature of group tourism – most companies host conferences and retreats every other year, or alternate between two or more locations.

"It’s always a soft year, followed by a good year, which seems to be the trend for that market," said Schieven.

"That said, we’re looking at a strong September and October because of group business, which could help us finish around even with last year (in visitor numbers). We’re also expecting to be a little bit ahead of last year in August because we had such poor weather (in 2004) after the rain started mid-August, and hopefully we’ll be able to improve on that."

May visitors were down about two per cent compared to last year, while June bookings were down seven per cent. Finishing even after that kind of start will be tough, said Schieven, and impossible without some good weather.

People who are coming to Whistler are finding activities to do once they are here, and many are making the most of the situation. There are still good accommodation packages available, which usually disappear after the July long weekends. Some restaurants are also continuing to offer dinner specials, which in past years have only been available during the shoulder seasons.

The weather has also become a factor in an another local issue – London Drugs’ application to have a space rezoned from indoor recreation (the former Alpenrock space) to retail. Some of those opposed to the rezoning have used the recent rain and cold to bolster their case, claiming a greater need for more indoor activities when the weather turns bad.

The issue of indoor recreation hasn’t come up in Tourism Whistler guest surveys, but visitors have indicated that they need more information on recreational options.

"For example, they want more information on things like mountain bike trails that may be a bit more moderate, and these are things we already have but we have to make sure that information gets out there to them," Shieven said.

"It turns so fast here, she added. "If we get good weather for one weekend, we’ll get busy again."

From the front lines

As the weather has lowered the number of visitors, local businesses are reporting mixed results from the first part of the summer.

According to Ian Goldstone of the Whistler Cross-Country Connection, bike rentals and lessons are ahead of last year.

"It’s actually been pretty good biking this year – maybe it’s not a good year for beaches, but there are other things to do here," he said. "The trails are a little wet, but we’ve really seen a lot more clouds than rain so everything is in a lot better shape than people expect. Some sun would be good, but when you’re in the trees it really doesn’t matter as much," he said.

Goldstone’s business was impacted heavily during the winter, with the rain washing the cross-country ski season away after just three weeks of operation. Cross-country skiing was subsequently offered on Whistler Mountain, and season passes were honoured, but the overall impact on valley cross-country shops was negative.

Goldstone believes that part of his business success this summer has to do with the fact that Whistler has a good reputation for mountain biking, and that the Resort Municipality of Whistler is actively building biking and hiking trails in the Lost Lake area that are more resistant to rain.

"We remain optimistic (for this season). I think the resort is on the right track for the most part and there are more people coming here in the summer. There are still some things we can’t control, and we can’t really control the weather, but we’re trying.

"We could all be doing better if it was a little warmer and sunnier, but we don’t really have any complaints," he said.

"The trails (the RMOW is building) are awesome, they’re good for business, and they’re good for everyone who rides a bike – how many Loonie Races have been in there this year? I think they are one of the best things that ever happened to Whistler."

With all the rain and cold, and the public parks all but empty, you’d think that Beach or Bust would be having a bad year. In many ways they are, but according to manager Peter Elzinga it could be a lot worse.

"The weather is always huge for us, but we’re also experiencing a bit of a tourism lag at the same time. The U.S. economy is still softer, and more people are aware of the economy and their own personal debt," said Elzinga.

"If these tourists are not coming here, then they’re not going anywhere else in B.C. either, and I think we’re seeing the trickle down effect of the economy, of the war on terror, of the high dollar – weather isn’t all to blame here."

Troubles aside, Elzinga says his business is weathering the slow start to summer.

"I would say that the retail side of our business is down, but at the same time the number of people using tanning machines is up, so we’re doing okay, things are evening out," he said.

"That said, locals are down. It’s difficult, because it’s important to keep morale up, but every day is like (the Bill Murray movie) Groundhog Day, you wake up and it’s gloomy outside.

"But even though things are not what they could be, and business is not what it could be, things are still pretty good for us. Part of that has to do with the fact that we have a great staff that really relates to locals and guests, and that alone keeps people coming in."

One representative from a local rafting company, who asked to not be identified, said that numbers were down – the rain and slow melt has created an incredible rafting experiencing, but most guests still prefer to come out when it’s sunny.

"I’d say that compared to last year we’re down quite a bit," she said. "I just don’t think the numbers of people are here that we’d normally see… and it’s probably because of the weather. Things are picking up as the kids are getting out of school and it should get better as the summer progresses, but it’s definitely been a slow start for us."

The one benefit of the weather is the fact that the colder alpine temperatures, late snow and slow melt will prolong the rafting season on local rivers.

"It will definitely make our season better and longer," she said. "We’ll have longer on the local rivers before we have to go to the Squamish Rivers, which is always good for us. The Birkenhead usually sees us through the end of July, and the Green River until mid-August or the end of August, but you can run on the Elaho through September.

"The real benefit of keeping the local rivers open longer is that you can book shorter trips. If someone is here for a couple of days, it’s easy to get them to sign up for a two-hour rafting trip on a local river, but we’re not going to get the same people to commit to a full day in Squamish."

Dave Kirk, the long-time owner and operator of Sportstop, Mountain Riders and Whistler Village Sports, says business is ahead of last year. "We’ve just come through the end of one business cycle that hasn’t been very good for the past few years and we’re getting into the beginning of a new cycle that looks a little more positive," he said.

The building housing one of Kirk’s shops was being renovated last year, and only recently emerged from the scaffolding. While there were signs outside the scaffolding pointing to the shop, he says he is getting a lot more traffic now that construction has wrapped up.

"That’s not to say the weather is helping us, it definitely has the potential to take a toll on business. This is going on six weeks of really bad weather, and that’s not going to help us with the recovery," he said.

Businesses also have to have an edge when times get bad. For Kirk, that’s good customer service and carrying a wide selection of products.

"The rain jackets are selling," he joked.



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