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Vancouver 2010 bid in second?

BidIndex places Vancouver bid behind Bern, according to Gamesbids.com Eight cities are currently bidding for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games, although Andorra la Vella, Andorra looks like it might pull out and go for 2014 instead.

BidIndex places Vancouver bid behind Bern, according to Gamesbids.com

Eight cities are currently bidding for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games, although Andorra la Vella, Andorra looks like it might pull out and go for 2014 instead.

Vancouver and Whistler are already waist deep in the preliminary bid process and the organizers are confident that we will be one of the five cities short-listed in August to submit an actual bid. After jumping that hurdle, the Vancouver-Whistler 2010 Bid Corporation will have just over 14 months before the International Olympic Committee awards the 2010 Games in July, 2003.

The local media has scrutinized our own bid, but to date we don’t really know what the competition will be bringing to the IOC table or how we stack up.

Enter GamesBids.com, a Web site that spun out of Toronto’s failed bid to host the 2008 Olympics. Using past Olympic bids as a model, they have created the BidIndex, a mathematical formula that analyzes the merits and demerits of each bid to come up with a number. By comparing the number assigned to each bid – and that number is always changing as more information on each bid surfaces – you can get an idea of which city is in the lead.

Is it accurate? GamesBids.com doesn’t make that claim.

"It has been observed in the past that the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids, and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids."

Does it work? So far, the answer is yes.

The BidIndex was first used to gauge the merits of the bids for the 2008 Games, and the end results of the IOC voting was surprisingly consistent with the Index.

Beijing China had a 75.44 BidIndex and received 44 votes in round one and 56 votes in round two. Toronto had a BidIndex of 63.79 and received 20 votes in round one and 22 in round two. Paris had a BidIndex of 58.71 and received 17 votes in round one and 9 votes in round two.

By applying the formula to the 2010 bid cities, BidIndex determined that the Vancouver bid is currently running in second to Bern, Switzlerland. Vancouver has 58.13 points, while Bern has 58.27. Salzburg, Austria, is third with 52.93 points, Jaca, Spain is fourth with 46.04 and Andorra was fifth with 45.45.

The numbers change every time there is a new development that impacts the criteria used in the formula. The Vancouver bid went up 3.68 points following a February report that the provincial government would upgrade Highway 99, the so-call "Achilles Heel" of the bid.

Whether you take the BidIndex seriously or not, it’s appeal is obvious.

"Being in the news and sports business, you already know that it’s human nature to want to keep score with standings, polls, rankings, et cetera," says Robert Livingstone, one of the brains behind the BidIndex. "During the (Toronto) 2008 campaign we received thousands of e-mails from business, media and Olympic fans asking us who we thought would win, and why. However, until now there has been no way to score the Olympic bidding process, the biggest Olympic event of all, though some have tried.

"Many of our readers found the 2008 bid process very frustrating because although it was widely publicized that Toronto and Paris had better bids, they were constantly reminded that Beijing was the favourite to win."

According to Livingstone, the BidIndex analyzes several fundamental components of the candidacy. By looking at the each fundamental and comparing them to the results of past bids, the people at GamesBids.com were able to gauge how they correlated with the success of the bid.

Examples of these fundamentals include opinion polls, the dollar value of government support, and the distance from the host city to sport venues.

"We also use constants that we know will affect the outcome, such as the continent, previous bids, previous hostings, climate, et cetera. For example, history shows that previous bid experience and exposure is a valuable part of candidacy. History also shows that a country will not likely host two consecutive Games – so Harbin, China takes a major hit here," says Livingstone.

One of the most interesting variables that GamesBids.com looks at in the bid process falls under the heading IOC Politics.

"We have discovered that legitimate announced support by IOC members can have an effect on the outcome," says Livingstone, referring to IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch’s publicly stated support for Beijing’s 2008 bid.

"That same (variable) would have accounted for Marc Hodler’s Salt Lake City whistler blowing and the resulting backlash that factored into Switzerland’s suprising loss to Italy for the 2006 Games," says Livingstone. "We would have also accounted for Toronto Mayor Mel Lastman’s infamous ‘boiling water’ remark based on later published interviews of African (IOC) committee members."

Livingstone admits that the BidIndex has limited appeal to bid corporations, who are already well aware of the various strengths and weaknesses of each bid and all of the factors that can go into the IOC vote.

"The initial questionnaire for applicants and the bid book templates give a good indication of the technicalities the IOC is looking for. In other cases, constant factors are mostly out of the bid committee’s control," says Livingstone.

GamesBids.com would be willing to discuss the BidIndex with Olympic committees, but they keep the formula under lock and key. "It is the result of several months of research and design engineered by people with expertise in statistics and the Olympic bid process. We would never release the formula in whole for fear that someone else may publish the ongoing results and claim it as their own. However, we are always willing to discuss individual factors and design elements of the formula, and our sources of data," says Livingstone.

In the end, it all comes down to educated guesswork, and another layer of speculation on top of all the other speculation out there. But it’s compelling nonetheless.