The tale of the two main national political leaders requires a seasonal update of the file. Metaphors are in order, data comes in handy.
First, it is not that Prime Minister Mark Carney is enjoying a honeymoon. This is more like the phase in which you find out your partner favours the same toothpaste, drives neither recklessly nor tepidly, and also likes evening TV instead of reading. In other words, as polls indicate, his priorities generally align at the moment with the environment in which he finds himself.
As for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, it’s as if he’d been running a pretty successful sports franchise that squandered its playoff run, can’t just run back the same team next season, so needs some retooling short of a major rebuilding. In other words, polls suggest there are choices to be made about the next version of his leadership to send into action.
Carney was gifted a pig (distressed party, cross-aisle and cross-border threats) and has been endeavouring to put more than lipstick on it for months now. New policies abound, as does an obvious recognition there is no other choice but subservience to U.S. President Donald Trump in the do-over on our trade deal as part of a gimme-gimme disruption of the global economy. (This week’s rescinding of the Digital Services Tax on foreign tech firms is likely mild compared to the surprises when—even if—a trade deal emerges later this month for who knows how long.)
Canadians are increasingly trusting political leadership to handle Trump—38 per cent somewhat and 20 per cent strongly agree our leaders can, according to a July 1 Ipsos poll, and that’s largely a reflection of Carney’s charm offensive housed in hope he’s playing chess and the other guy will learn to play possum. In February, the confidence level was 12 points lower.
An Abacus Data survey Thursday links that trust in Carney to the policy priorities he has identified for the country. All of his focuses—affordability, housing, economic unity, sovereignty, fiscal discipline, partnerships, attracting talent while tapering immigration—are popular sentiments.
Where Abacus finds hesitation, though, is in how Canadians sense progress on these fronts. They’re perceiving momentum on internal trade barriers, on sovereignty and on the Canada-U.S. front, but they’re not seeing it on the two top issues for Canadians. Only 32 per cent think the government is on track to make life more affordable, and only 30 per cent think it is on track to deal with the housing crisis. This is not a small dilemma.
“When people care deeply about an issue and don’t see movement, it can create frustration, disengagement, or even backlash,” Abacus CEO David Coletto and director of strategy and insights Oksana Kishchuk wrote in their breakdown of the survey. “The danger is not just that people will say the government is ‘not delivering’, it’s that they stop believing it can.”
One of Carney’s many strokes of luck, beyond Trump’s second coming, was Poilievre’s failure on election night to hold his riding. A byelection has been called in Battle River-Crowfoot to permit Poilievre to seek his Commons return; Conservatives earned 82.5 per cent of its April vote and it would be an incredible rebuke if he isn’t its MP after Aug. 18.
Poilievre has picked his spots mindfully since the professional setback, careful not to upset the Team Canada applecart, crowing correctly that Carney has swiped policies, and not (publicly at least) expressing regret in his own culpability in overseeing a team that swung from being shoo-ins to being shut out. Since then, the popularity gap between the two leaders has remained wide—Carney is around 19 per cent more favourable than not, Poilievre is a couple of points more unfavourable than not—and party fortunes are still about five or six points apart.
For the time being Poilievre is embracing the Mark Twain line: "Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." But polls suggest he has some personal work to mute his abrasiveness beyond his new trait to smile more frequently. He crafted an extraordinary anti-Trudeau plan that commandeered male and younger voters, but ultimately didn’t connect with women and older voters. The house of cards collapsed when Trump threw tantrums and Poilievre’s paralysis left the door open for Carney to saunter through.
His version 3.0, presumably to inspire and not just indict, very likely has to drop in time for his January leadership review. His initial trial balloon touts the need for “severe limits” and a “hard rule” on immigration so housing stock, health-care access and job opportunities stay ahead of population growth. A nice to-do, but open to an interpretation of exclusion that would alienate the moderates he needs to retool the Conservative franchise.
Kirk LaPointe is a Lodestar Media columnist with an extensive background in journalism. He is vice-president in the office of the chair at Fulmer & Company.
