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Is Ilya Mikheyev on the verge of ending his 34-game goal drought?

In recent games, Ilya Mikheyev has played more like the top-six winger his cap hit suggests he should be.
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Despite playing in the top-six, Ilya Mikheyev has gone 34 games without a goal.

It’s been nearly three full months since Ilya Mikheyev scored a goal.

It was December 17 against the Chicago Blackhawks. Mikheyev went to the front of the net and took a crosscheck in the back before deftly tipping in a Tyler Myers point shot for a goal that stood up as the winner in a 4-3 game. 

Since then, Mikheyev has gone 34 games without scoring, despite playing significant minutes in a top-six role, whether alongside Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller. His shots have repeatedly found the crest of the goaltender’s jersey. Potential tap-in goals have clanked off his stick and gone wide. It feels like he might never score again.

That’s a tough feeling to escape for a hockey player. In a sport as fast as hockey, where plays can zip by in the blink of an eye, confidence is everything. There’s no time for doubt or second-guessing, so when a player questions their ability to score, it can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That’s something head coach Rick Tocchet completely understands.

“I think for him, the coaching staff has to give him confidence,” said Tocchet after Tuesday’s practice. “We can't be hanging our head, 'You're not scoring,' and preaching the negative.”

Instead, Tocchet focused on the positives, such as the improvement Mikheyev has made in recent games. It was particularly noticeable on Saturday against the Winnipeg Jets, where Mikheyev had a game-high six shots on goal, was hard on the forecheck, and won puck battles throughout the night. Still, the goals wouldn’t come.

“He's playing more inside. He's getting more shots,” said Tocchet. “It's hard to play inside all the time. You’ve gotta keep doing it.”

Tocchet stressed the need for consistency from Mikheyev, that he needs to keep getting to the hard areas in the middle of the ice against opponents like the Colorado Avalanche, who the Canucks will face on Wednesday night.

“Can he still go through the middle? Take a beating in front to get those goals? That's the key, right?” said Tocchet. “He's not getting rewarded in the sense of stats, but I think he's getting rewarded with his team play. Where before I don't think he was playing as inside and he wasn't really playing well without the puck, but now he's playing well without the puck and he's getting chances.”

While the goals haven’t shown up for Mikheyev, his improved play has shown up in other statistics. Over the last seven games, Mikheyev has 24 shot attempts at 5-on-5, which is fourth among forwards in that span behind Conor Garland (27), Elias Pettersson (26), and Brock Boeser (25). Eight of his attempts have been considered high-danger chances according to Natural Stat Trick, including three on Saturday against the Jets.

Getting high-danger chances typically leads to goals, even for Mikheyev, who isn’t the best finisher. Nine of his ten goals this season have come in the 15 games where he had more than one high-danger chance. 

Those multi-chance games came more frequently for Mikheyev earlier in the season and have been more rare during his goalscoring drought. If his recent games mean that he’ll be getting to the inside for those chances more regularly, the goals should follow.

It’s particularly important for Mikheyev to continue getting to the inside. Before his knee surgery, MIkheyev primarily used his speed to create scoring chances, but his speed hasn’t fully returned to where it once was. Without his speed being a difference-maker, Mikheyev needs to find other ways to create chances.

Here’s the trouble: as Tocchet said, it’s hard to constantly be getting to the inside and taking the punishment that comes with it. When it doesn’t get rewarded, it starts to get difficult to justify all the hard work and the punishment.

“You've got to stick with it,” said Tocchet. “We've all gone through slumps in our career. It's the war of attrition, you’ve gotta keep doing it. And that's really my message to him.”

For Tocchet as well, it’s understanding that what Mikheyev needs right now isn’t a harsh word but encouragement.

“Don't feel sorry for yourself, you know, you're contributing in other ways,” said Tocchet. “And we've gotta help him. Our staff has gotta help his confidence. I can't be negative with him, I've gotta make sure that he understands, 'Hey, you’re playing well. Don't worry if you're not scoring right now.' 

“Would we like him to score? Of course. but I think his game's coming. I just don't want him to go this way and take the easy way out.”

With the Canucks failing to add a top-six winger at the trade deadline, they would love to see Mikheyev bust his slump and play more like the top-six winger his $4.75 million cap hit suggests he should be. If Mikheyev keeps playing like he did against the Jets, then that's exactly what he will be for the Canucks.